Creating desirable futures for nature: the Nature Futures Framework.
Abstract
This paper addresses the question of how a new set of scenarios that respond to these needs can be developed. It outlines the systematic steps to develop such scenarios that have been made by a group of experts who participated in the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) scenarios and models expert group, and explains the methodology of each element of the process in detail to illustrate how the process differs from the development of previous global environmental scenarios. A key outcome of the process thus far has been the creation of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a heuristic tool based on the diverse, positive relationships that humans have with nature, whilst at the same time offering a structure for consistency in the scenarios and models that use it. The NFF enables the co-production of novel scenarios that incorporate diverse interventions towards positive future trajectories for nature and nature's contributions to people. In the discussion, it analyzes the contribution of the NFF both as a boundary object to open up more plural perspectives in the creation of nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales and levels, whilst enabling this plurality to flourish.