Prediction of the pupal duration of Glossina morsitans orientalis Vanderplank under field conditions.
The following is substantially the authors' summary. To provide means of predicting with precision the duration of the puparial stage of Glossina morsitans orientals Vanderplank, several methods based on the relationship between rate of development and temperature [cf. RAE B 58 846] were evaluated. Predicted durations were tested by comparison with those derived from puparia of known age observed in the laboratory, in well-maintained, naturally fluctuating temperature conditions for four seasons, and in natural breeding sites at two field stations in Rhodesia. Other predictions were compared with estimated durations from observations of puparia of unknown age in natural breeding sites. An extreme value estimator was devised for dealing with observations on puparia of unknown age. It is concluded that the mean duration of the puparial stage can be predicted very precisely under controlled laboratory conditions, that mean durations can be predicted to within 5% of actual values in specific puparial sites under study, provided that temperature is recorded in the puparial environment and an appropriate temperature statistic is adopted, and that seasonal patterns of variation in mean duration over the range 20-90 days can be adequately predicted from daily 1/2 (maximum + minimum) temperatures as recorded in a Stevenson screen located in the vicinity of natural breeding sites.