A cyclical feeding model for pathogen transmission and its application to determine vectorial capacity from vector infection rates.
A model of disease transmission was formulated which assumed that vector feeding behaviour is cyclical rather than continuous. This model led to equations which were analogous to those developed by G. MacDonald (1957) [The epidemiology and control of malaria. London, Oxford University Press] for non-cyclical feeding. Equations were derived from the cyclic feeding model to evaluate parameters describing disease transmission from entomological data or from infection rates in the vector. Where vector infection rates can be measured, the model predicts that estimates of vectorial capacity, transmission parameters (e.g. the probability that a mosquito will be infected) and vector survival made from these rates would be, in principle, less subject to uncertainties in factors such as the vector's survival function, the presence of mixed populations of vectors, and changing vector numbers and transmission rates, than methods based upon entomological parameters alone.