Forest futures: linking global paths to local conditions.
The chapter establishes links between elements of long-term global scenarios and the prerequisite conditions of sustainable forest management (SFM), as discussed in Parts I and III. It uses a component from a new global scenario exercise: the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), which are narratives that cover a spectrum of climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges. The chapter tests how different SSP narratives relate to the prerequisite conditions for SFM through two approaches: (1) by analysing how the prerequisite conditions are represented in the SSP narratives, and (2) by postulating prerequisite condition scenarios and linking those to the SSPs. Two SSPs that foresee high adaptation challenges foresee deteriorating social cohesion and reduced international cooperation in addressing shared global challenges linked to climate change. The narratives of these two SSPs both suggest several challenges for SFM. The SSP that foresees high mitigation challenges generally suggests positive trends for the prerequisite conditions but also progressive influence of market mechanisms with unpredictable outcomes for environmental management. A three-tier scenario for the prerequisite conditions and testing them against the SSP narratives suggests a fairly comprehensive alignment but also indicates a marked difference between the two SSPs that foresee adaptation challenges and prerequisite conditions of tenure rights and public administration.