On the use of agricultural system models for exploring technological innovations across scales in Africa: a critical review.
Abstract
In this report we present results from three systematic reviews: one on the use of biophysical modelling, the second and third on the use of bio-economic modelling at farm scale and agroeconomic modelling at higher aggregation levels, for ex ante evaluation of the effects of agro-technological innovations (ag-TIs) on sustainable agriculture and food security indicators. To this end, we searched the SCOPUS database for journal articles published between 1996 and 2015. We considered modelling studies at different spatial scales with particular attention to local to national scale studies for the twelve PARI focal countries in Africa . But we also included studies for all other African countries as well as a few studies at supra-national/continental scale. Both "quick wins" as well as long term benefits from ag-TIs were of interest. The various ag-TIs were furthermore grouped into four classes: (1) water/soil moisture (2) soil nutrients/conservation (3) crop/cropping system, (4) other ag-TIs or (5) combinations of 1 to 4. We found 140 relevant biophysical modelling studies, whereby coverage of sub-regions and ag-TIs varied markedly. Most studies were found for East and West Africa, followed by Southern Africa; hardly anything was found for Northern and Middle Africa. A similar pattern appeared for the integrated agro-economic modelling studies at farm scale, for which we found 40 relevant ones. Agro-economic modelling studies at higher aggregation levels showed a somewhat different pattern - and more generally contained little detail on technological innovations. Regarding the share of different primary agro-technologies explored in the biophysical studies we found 45 on crop management, 35 on combined agro-technologies, 31 on soil nutrient management and conservation, 23 on water/soil moisture management, and 6 on other technologies. We found similar shares among the various agro-technology groups for the integrated agro-economic modelling studies at farm scale. Looking at the outcomes from ex ante evaluations we found that many studies are (mostly) positive on effects of single and "conventional" ag-Tis. The majority of biophysical studies is performed at "field scale" and focuses on the effects on productivity (sometimes yield stability); many of these studies were performed in climate variability and change/adaptation research context. Most agro-economic modelling studies that look specifically at ex ante evaluations of ag-TIs are performed at farm or regional (sub-national) scales. While the number of biophysically oriented studies has grown exponentially over the considered period 1996-2015, this is not the case for the agro-economic modelling studies. Looking in more detail at the twelve focal countries of PARI (Programme of Accompanying Research on Agricultural Innovations), we also find an unbalanced distribution, with most studies found in Kenya, Ethiopia, Mali and Ghana (biophysical modelling studies), and respectively in Kenya and Uganda (agro-economic modelling studies), whereas nothing or little was found for both types of studies in Togo, Zambia and Nigeria. Very few of the biophysically-oriented studies include other information than effects on crop yields, and there are few studies for both biophysical and agro-economic modelling that comprise multi-scale or higher scale analyses; if multi-scale, there are more studies that scale up from field/farm to regional/sub-national level than from field/farm to nation scale or beyond. A more general conclusion is that there is no application yet of true transdisciplinary research approaches in practice.