Disturbance ecology in human societies.
Abstract
We define societal disturbances as discrete events that abruptly disrupt the functioning of human societies. There is a variety of such events, including hurricanes, floods, epidemics, nuclear accidents, earthquakes and wars, among others. These disturbances can interact, further increasing their impacts. The severity of disturbances does not only depend on their intrinsic properties (type, intensity and magnitude) but also greatly on human aspects (socioeconomic, historical, political and cultural aspects that define vulnerability). Very large or severe disturbances are infrequent and unpredictable. Yet societal disturbances are intrinsic to human societies; they have occurred through the entire human history and will continue to occur in the future. We can increase preparedness and recovery capacity but cannot avoid disturbances. The type, regime and scale of disturbances change with the development of societies. The increase in population density and complexity also increases the severity of many disturbances. Societal disturbances can temporarily disrupt the functioning of societies. However, when those disturbances are frequent, societies adapt to them and thus disturbances contribute to shape cultural evolution. That is, societal disturbances have a cost at short temporal scales, but they can build up resilience at mid- to long-term scales. Understanding this dynamic view of human systems is becoming more important as climate is changing, humans are overexploiting natural resources and humanity is dense and hyperconnected. We need to take advantage of frequent small disturbances, as they can build resilience and reduce the likelihood of infrequent large and severe disturbances. Our challenge is to encourage actions and policies to be prepared for unknown, unpredictable and unprecedented (infrequent) large-scale societal disturbances that will surely arrive.